by They used to call this time of year “Chiefs Season.”
Now? It feels more like damage control.
At 6–6, Kansas City sits tenth in the AFC. And since only seven teams make the playoffs, that means they’re not just on the outside looking in—they’re being elbowed further back by teams they once towered over.
But before you mute the notifications and stash your red jersey in the closet…
there’s still a path.
A 10–7 Record Won’t Save Them
Go ahead—fire up ESPN’s Playoff Machine. Plug in a Chiefs win streak. Watch them finish 10–7, tied with Houston, Indy, and L.A.
Feels promising, right?
Wrong. In The Athletic’s latest simulation, that exact record leaves Kansas City ninth in the conference.
Out. Again.
And it’s not just simulation pessimism. Real-life standings tell the same brutal story:
- Broncos (10–2)
- Patriots (10–2)
- Jaguars, Chargers, Colts, Bills (all 8–4)
- Ravens and Steelers (6–6, but ahead on tiebreakers)
- Texans (7–5)
And then… the Chiefs. Lurking at #10.
But why?
Because winning games isn’t enough anymore.
The Real Killer? They’re Losing the AFC War
Kansas City’s record against AFC opponents? 3–4.
Every single team ahead of them has done better within the conference.
That’s not a footnote—it’s the tiebreaker that could lock them out even if they catch up in wins.
And the losses that sting most?
- Jacksonville beat them—and owns the head-to-head.
- Buffalo just crushed them—and also owns the tiebreaker.
So even if the Chiefs pull even in the standings…
they’d still lose the seat at the table.
But Here’s Where It Gets Interesting
They do hold tiebreakers over two dangerous wild-card contenders:
- The Colts (thanks to that gritty November win)
- The Ravens (from their early-season escape in Baltimore)
And if Jacksonville runs away with the AFC South—and Pittsburgh claims the North—then Indy and Baltimore get shoved into the wild-card scrum…
right into Kansas City’s path.
Suddenly, that head-to-head edge isn’t just trivia—it’s a lifeline.
But lifelines only matter if you’re still swimming.
And the Chiefs are starting to sink.
The Schedule Doesn’t Care About Legacy
Next up: Sunday Night Football against the Texans—fresh off dropping eight sacks on Josh Allen.
After that? A home date with the Chargers, who are fighting just as hard to survive.
Then comes a “breather” in Tennessee (1–11)—except Kansas City’s offensive line is down three starters, including Jawaan Taylor, Josh Simmons, and Trey Smith.
Then? Christmas Day. A showdown with the 10–2 Broncos—already playoff-bound and playing for seeding.
And finally, a Week 18 trip to Las Vegas… where even the 2–10 Raiders could play spoiler if the Chiefs arrive broken.
So yes—technically, they could win out.
But do you really believe they will?
This Isn’t About Stats Anymore—It’s About Soul
Watch Patrick Mahomes after a three-and-out. He doesn’t yell. He doesn’t slam his helmet.
He just stares—like he’s recalibrating the universe in his head.
Andy Reid, usually grinning through chaos, now offers clipped answers and distant eyes.
This team knows what’s slipping away. Not just a playoff berth—but the feeling that they’re still the team to beat.
Dynasties don’t end with a bang.
They fade in silence—unless someone decides to fight.
So What Happens Next?
If the Chiefs lose to Houston on Sunday night, their playoff odds could dip below 20%.
If they beat the Texans and the Chargers? Suddenly, they’re back in the conversation.
But “conversation” isn’t enough in December.
Only wins are.
The good news? Four of their final five games are at home.
The bad news? They might not be good enough to matter.
One thing’s certain:
This isn’t the season anyone expected.
But Kansas City has rewritten worse scripts before.
The question now is—do they still have the pen?
(Keep reading. Because the next five weeks will tell us everything.)
